The planes that never came home.
The Second World War. The statistician Abraham Wald must work out where bombers need more armour.
The planes that return have bullet holes in the wings and fuselage. Almost none on the engines.
The obvious answer: reinforce where the holes are.
Wald’s answer: the opposite.
The holes show where a plane can take a hit. The planes hit in the engine are missing. They never came home.
Every sales organisation has the same data set: CRM.
It holds your lost deals, each with a reason. Price. Solution. Competitor.
Those are the planes with holes in the wings. Damaged, but home.
So that is where you reinforce. Sharper proposals, better presentations, tougher negotiations.
But some deals never came home.
The customer discussed the problem with someone else. The requirements were written from that conversation. When the request went out, you were not on the list.
Those deals have no row in CRM. No loss reason says “we were never asked”.
I call them silent losses.
Your armour is on the proposal. The hit came far earlier, in the conversation where the customer defined the problem.
How much of your sales development is about deals you already had a shot at? And how much about getting the shot?
